Metaculus (www.metaculus.com) is the premier public forecasting platform, with over 1,000,000 forecasts on over 6,000 questions. Metaculus is "epistemic infrastructure", like Wikipedia and Our World In Data, providing the world with trusted, accurate information on a variety of questions, particularly in science and technology. Our mission is to enable everyone to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world's most important and complex challenges.
As a Full-Stack Engineer focused on Forecast Coherence & World Models, you'll pioneer the development of systems that make complex forecasting relationships and underlying world models transparent and accessible. You'll work at the intersection of software engineering and epistemics, building tools that help forecasters create more coherent predictions and make their reasoning legible to both experts and non-experts alike.
This role involves designing and implementing features that elicit, aggregate, and display the relationships between forecasts—from causal connections to necessary conditions—while leveraging AI to assist in world model construction and identify missing variables that could improve forecast quality.
Requirements
Benefits
Metaculus offers competitive compensation packages and is supported by a committed coalition of funding partners.
In addition to the salary range listed above:
At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting platform, our innovative programs, and our long-term partnerships, we enable a range of stakeholders and contributors to engage in a process of collective reasoning, forecasting, and ultimately, more informed action. Via this process, we are fostering a worldwide positive-sum collaboration network that develops and aggregates the most accurate forecasts on topics of global importance, a network that spans across nonprofits, government agencies, and institutions, to individual forecasters, researchers, students, and authors.As an organization, we strive to combine the best aspects of science culture and applied innovation culture, with a high-impact operational philosophy. We are now actively seeking a technology leader who will take the reins in developing the future of the Metaculus platform.
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