Consultancy - Baseline Study Pathways to Scale (P2S)

Terms of Reference - Baseline Study Pathways to Scale (P2S)

Location: Nationwide, Nigeria
Duration of Contract: 2 Months (30 working days)
Reports to: MERL & Data Compliance Manager
Application Deadline: Jan 23, 2026
Expected Start Date: February 2026
Level of Effort: 30 days

1. WUSC Background
WUSC is a leading Canadian international development organization committed to providing education, economic and empowerment opportunities to improve the lives of millions of disadvantaged youths around the world, particularly young women and refugees. WUSC’s vision is a world where all young people can thrive in safe, secure and supportive environments; have access to high-quality education opportunities from early childhood to adulthood; are able to secure fair, decent and fulfilling economic opportunities; and can actively participate in all aspects of their societies’ development. WUSC works as a facilitator and a convener, bringing together diverse resources and stakeholders to tackle complex challenges at a systems level. WUSC leverages a wide network of actors from civil society, post-secondary education, the private sector and youth themselves to design and implement initiatives that will bring lasting change for the benefit of youth. 

WUSC operates in over 25 countries across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. WUSC has over 300 staff globally implementing many development projects in collaboration with donors, such as Global Affairs Canada, the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, and the Mastercard Foundation. 

In partnership with the Mastercard Foundation, WUSC is expanding its operations to Nigeria, supporting national development priorities through strategic collaboration with entrepreneurship support organizations and other key development stakeholders. WUSC has co-designed and is in the early stages of implementing an innovative program aimed at expanding women’s economic opportunities, with a specific focus on strengthening women-owned and women-led businesses to improve employment and entrepreneurship outcomes.

2. Pathways to Scale Background
Pathways to Scale (P2S) is a strategic initiative aimed at advancing economic opportunities for women entrepreneurs in Africa. Running from May 6, 2025, to April 30, 2030, the project is funded by the Mastercard Foundation and implemented by World University Service of Canada (WUSC) in collaboration with Seedstars and a network of local Enterprise Support Organizations (ESOs) across Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Rwanda. P2S seeks to expand access to finance, deliver tailored technical assistance, and strengthen entrepreneurial ecosystems to enable young women, particularly those in rural areas, to grow sustainable enterprises, create jobs, and contribute to inclusive economic development. Aligned with WUSC’s vision of a world where every young person thrives and belongs, the project aims to unlock 108,000 dignified and fulfilling work opportunities for young women, contributing directly to the Mastercard Foundation’s goal of enabling 30 million young people in Africa to access dignified and fulfilling  work by 2030.

The project focuses on supporting and empowering young rural women entrepreneurs especially those in agriculture and agribusiness through skills training and access to finance with a strong emphasis on scalability of existing businesses. Building on this foundation, P2S will promote sustained growth among women entrepreneurs by providing advanced mentorship and access to capital, ensuring they have the resources necessary for sustainable scaling while creating and maintaining dignified and fulfilling work opportunities for other young rural women. Specifically, the project will achieve its objective by:

• Expanding access to finance for women-owned and women-led enterprises through concessional loans and impact-linked grants.
• Delivering tailored technical assistance (TA) to enable targeted women entrepreneurs to achieve sustainable and impactful growth.
• Strengthening the entrepreneurial ecosystem by collaborating with a robust network of ESOs and strengthening their capacity to integrate gender, youth, RDP, disability, and rural development perspectives.

To ensure continuity and build on existing investments, 80% of the project participants are sourced from selected Mastercard Foundation programs in the implementation countries that closed before January 2023. The remaining 20% will be drawn from the broader market, with a deliberate focus on reaching new segments of women entrepreneurs who were not historically engaged through previous Mastercard Foundation programs. This approach balances the need to sustain momentum from past initiatives while expanding opportunities to underserved groups.
In Nigeria, P2S is partnering with Seedstars and a network of local Enterprise Support Organizations (ESOs) to reach 8,922 women owned and led businesses in the agriculture and agribusiness space. Of these, 6,091 will have access to finance and business development support (BDS) to scale their businesses while the rest will only receive the projects’ tailored technical assistance (BDS). These businesses cut across the Micro, small, medium and high group cadre spread across the country. In line with the project focus, these businesses will receive tailored technical assistance, access to finance and ecosystem strengthening support that is expected to accelerate scale of supported businesses, create dignified and fulfilling work opportunities thereby resulting in improved well-being and resilience of young rural women in Nigeria.

3. Objective of the study 
The purpose of the baseline study for Pathways to Scale is to establish a reference point against which progress and impact will be measured throughout the project lifecycle. This assessment will provide critical data on the initial status of targeted project participants, institutions, and systems prior to the commencement of full-scale implementation in Nigeria. Specifically, the baseline will generate evidence to benchmark key performance indicators related to women-owned enterprises while also identifying contextual factors, challenges, and opportunities that may influence project success. Findings from the baseline study will serve as both a benchmark for monitoring change and a learning tool for refining program strategies, ensuring alignment with donor requirements, and project goals. Specific objectives will include but are not limited to:

• Establish a benchmark of the project participants and context prior to full scale implementation to track change over time and measure progress toward outputs, outcomes, and impact.
• Refine the indicators in the Performance Measurement Framework (PMF) to ensure they are realistic, context-specific and achievable.
• To generate evidence that validates the assumptions underpinning the project’s Theory of Change and informs adaptive implementation, including the revision and refinement of the project’s implementation strategy as necessary.
• Analyze gender norms, power relations, and social inclusion factors to strengthen the P2S safeguarding and inclusion strategy.

4. Scope of the Study
Pathways to Scale project participants are distributed across Nigeria, with the largest concentration located in Lagos and across northern states. The consultant will be required to design the study to reflect this geographic spread, focusing on priority implementation locations and collecting data from key ecosystem actors including women owned and women led enterprises, Entrepreneur Support Organizations (ESOs), financial service providers, and other relevant stakeholders identified in collaboration with the P2S project team.
The study will place significant emphasis on women entrepreneurs aged 15 to 35 which constitute about 60 percent of the study population, persons with disabilities (PWDs), and individuals from underserved and marginalized groups. Although Lagos and northern Nigeria represent the highest concentration of target participants, this assumption should be validated and refined through baseline findings. The project aims to reach more than 90,000 young individuals in Nigeria over the life of the initiative, strengthening women’s economic empowerment through enterprise support, job creation, skills development, and expanded access to finance. This emphasis applies especially to women engaged in micro, small, medium and high-growth enterprises, along with other ecosystem actors and institutions that provide the services and support necessary for their success.
The baseline study will also set the benchmark to effectively address the P2S learning questions:

1. What types and cost-effective combinations of capacity building are required to enable ESOs to meet the needs of different segments of women entrepreneurs, including young rural women?
2. What combinations of financial and non-financial support help various segments of women entrepreneurs, including young rural women, RDPs, and PWDs, scale their businesses?  
3. What are the benefits and drawbacks of impact-based financing, (including SIINCS) for women entrepreneurs compared with more traditional financial products and services? How effective is this approach?
4. In what ways will women-owned/led businesses supported by P2S contribute to inclusive economic development, specifically with respect to the creation of fulfilling and dignified employment of young rural women, PWDs and RDPs?
5. How can data platforms be designed to provide valuable and customized support to P2S target entrepreneurs
6. What is the opportunity for the results of P2S to be leveraged to scale and deepen its overall impact?

The project is currently updating its Performance Measurement Framework (PMF), which will be shared with the selected consultant. The consultant should, however, anticipate responsibility for establishing baselines and/or validating targeting criteria for several pre-identified outcome indicators included in the PMF. The key result areas and corresponding indicators that will guide the study design include:

Result Area

Indicators

Impact

Improved wellbeing and resilience of young rural women in East and West Africa through increased access to dignified and fulfilling work resulting from impact driven enterprise growth support

Share of individuals reporting improvements in their own well-being (access to high-quality key services, life satisfaction, food security and safety)

Percentage increase in average income of young women employed by supported enterprises

Individuals' own assessment of their resilience (capacities to survive, cope, and thrive and their response or coping strategy to shocks & stresses)

Views of youth on their abilities to access business opportunities that align with their aspirations, abilities, and expectations

Strategic Outcome

Accelerated scale-up of women owned and led (including young rural women) enterprises impacting young rural women

Percentage of individuals reporting change in access to capitals/resources (among total number of individuals supported)

Percentage of women entrepreneurs reporting change in business practices

Percentage of supported women enterprises that have scaled their businesses within 6 to 24 months of receiving project support

Total number of young people who have gained new, additional, sustained, or improved employment, either through self-employment or wage employment, as a direct result of the Foundation’s support (Number of youths in dignified & fulfilling work)

Number of young people who participated in work-enabling program activities such as skilling, training, education, resources, materials, entrepreneurial support, and tailored interventions/activities aimed at transitioning them into dignified and fulfilling work opportunities.

Number of supported enterprises reporting increases in revenues (among total number of enterprises)

Outcomes

Improved access and quality of impact focused, gender lens technical support for women owned and led enterprises leading to impact on young, rural women

Enterprise capacity development (number of enterprises & types of change)

Number of enterprises reporting a change in offering/markets (among total number of enterprises)

Views of participating enterprises/groups on quality, usefulness, relevance, affordability, accessibility of support (non-financial)

Improved access to impact focused, gender lens capital for women owned and led enterprises leading to impact on young, rural women

Level of satisfaction of women entrepreneurs with the relevance and usefulness of the tailored loan products to their enterprises

Percentage change in the number of women owned and led enterprises accessing gender lens, impact focused capital

Improved support provided to women owned and led enterprises by their ecosystems leading to impact on young, rural women

Percentage of operational enterprises after 6 and 24 months since receiving support among total number of enterprises

Level of satisfaction of supported women owned and led enterprises on the availability of data to support the growth of their businesses

Level of knowledge among ecosystem actors of the services/supports required by women-led enterprises to scale their businesses

5. Study approach and methodology
In alignment with WUSC’s Monitoring and Evaluation policy, the study must intentionally apply gender-responsive, youth-focused, and disability-inclusive research approaches, and should demonstrate the use of participatory methods where appropriate. Given the nature of the outcome indicators, the study will require both qualitative and quantitative evidence. Accordingly, it is anticipated that the study will establish a robust baseline to enable a before-and-after evaluation design, employing a mixed-methods approach to data collection. The consultant is expected to clearly articulate the proposed study design and methodological approach, including a detailed justification for the selected methods, demonstrating their appropriateness for generating reliable, valid, and actionable evidence aligned with the study objectives.
The geographical scope of the study should reflect the distribution of project participants, and this should be fully integrated into the sampling design and site selection. The sampling approach should also take into account the project’s focus on the agricultural sector in Nigeria, as well as the emerging project safeguarding and inclusion strategy, which will be shared with the selected consultant at the start of the assignment.

Based on a review of the Performance Measurement Framework and other relevant project documents, the consultant is encouraged to recommend alternative or supplementary methodologies where appropriate, particularly where they may enhance the validity, relevance, or rigor of findings. Potential methods for data collection may include but not limited to participant surveys, document and literature review, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions if necessary. Quantitative data must be digitized, while qualitative data should be recorded, transcribed, and organized for analysis. All raw data sets and associated documentation will be shared with the P2S MERL Team. The consultant should clearly outline in their proposal the analytical techniques to be applied, including the rationale for each.
The proposal must also specify the criteria and process for selecting respondents for each data collection method, including the sampling approach for quantitative data and the selection framework for qualitative data. In addition, the consultant should describe how ethical considerations will be integrated throughout the research process, including data collection, analysis, storage, and dissemination. This should address, at minimum, informed consent, confidentiality, data security, safeguarding, and strategies to mitigate potential risks to participants.

6. Key Activities and Deliverables
The selected consultant will have overall responsibility for the design and implementation of the study and ensuring the quality and timeliness of all deliverables. The consultant will be responsible for designing the study methodology, collecting data, analyzing data and report writing. 

The key activities and deliverables expected from the consultant for the assignment are as follows: 

1. Document Review: Appraisal of relevant documents, studies and other secondary data sources regarding approaches to scale women owned and led entrepreneurs in Nigeria and how they affect the project design and performance indicators identified in the project Performance Measurement Framework.
2. Participate in an inception meeting: This meeting is needed to clarify expectations of the mandate and provide context information necessary to produce the inception report and workplan.
3. Inception report and workplan: a detailed inception report and work plan is to be produced including the following elements:
         - Baseline study design highlighting methodology to gather quantitative and qualitative data, ensuring representative coverage and credible analysis 
         - A sampling strategy that demonstrates a representative and inclusive framework to capture all target groups, including PWDs and RDPs, enabling meaningful engagement of relevant groups and project stakeholders. 
         - Detailed work plan that includes all tasks by the Consultant and team members and incorporating the overall study timelines.
         - Revised level of effort for the study if applicable
         - Detailed study budget, including professional fees, expected reimbursable, etc.
         - Copies of quantitative and qualitative data collection tools
4. Review/finalization of data collection tools. Development of quantitative and qualitative tools for data collection. These tools will be reviewed during the inception phase and must be included in the inception report/work plan.
5. Develop Enumerator Guidelines and Protocols for Data Collection
6. Coordinate/Conduct Enumerators Training following a detailed agenda and outlining study protocols (this agenda should be included in the inception report)
7. Coordinate/conduct/supervise data collection, as per the agreed methodology
8. Ensure Data Quality by supervising data collection and reviewing data entry, where applicable
9. Ensure full compliance with applicable national data protection and privacy laws, as well as relevant regulatory and institutional requirements, throughout the assessment cycle.
10. Analyze qualitative and quantitative data collected while applying an intersectional lens (considering age, disability status, RDP status and typology of businesses). It is also expected that the consultant will do a critical analysis of the data through statistical treatment and triangulation with other sources and literature reviews.
11. Sense-making workshop: Actively participate in the assessment’s sense-making workshop that will convene key stakeholders in order to collectively review, interpret, and validate the preliminary findings from the baseline study. The workshop will support shared reflection on emerging insights, examine their implications for program design and delivery, and ensure alignment between the data, project assumptions, and intended outcomes.
12. Draft and final Study Report, including Executive Summary and Full Consolidated Report. The final report is to be submitted in both Word and PDF versions with all annexes and raw data files included. The Table of Contents will be decided on during the inception phase and included in the inception report.
13. Copies of original and cleaned data sets including any field notes are to be submitted to the P2S MEL team with the draft report. 

Expected key deliverables are listed below:

• Inception report, containing detailed methodology and timeline, data collection tools and protocols, enumerators training tools, data analysis plan, informed consent forms,
• Presentation of preliminary findings at the sense making workshop
• All raw data, recordings and notes from both the quantitative and qualitative data collection processes.
• Draft and Final report with key findings and recommendations;

7. Time Frame and Level of Effort 
The period of the contract is expected to be from February to April 2026 with an expected contribution of approximately 30 working days over two months. The consultant is expected to carry out all the preparation required to roll out the study as per the tentative sequence suggested. The consultant is encouraged to modify the table as needed - modifications to major tasks should be done in consultation with the project MEL team. The consultant is also free to outline an appropriate level of effort for each member of his/her team and for enumerators alike. The time frame provided should fall within the study period outlined at the beginning of this section.

Task                                                                                                                                                                         DaysTimeline

Document and literature review                                                                                                                                    2

Inception Meeting                                                                                                                                                         0.5

Submission of draft inception report, including detailed work plan                                                                               2.5

Submission of final inception report (integrate comments from WUSC)                                                                        1

Preparation for enumerators/data collectors training and preparation with P2S project team                                       1

Enumerators Training and Pilot                                                                                                                                      2

Data Collection                                                                                                                                                               10

Data cleaning, transcription and analysis                                                                                                                          3

Presentation of preliminary findings at sense making workshop                                                                                      1

Draft Report (following report structure outlined in inception report)                                                                                 5

Incorporate feedback and comments and submit final Report (along with originals and copies of all data sets)              2

Total                                                                                                                                                                                   30

The final timeline will be discussed and agreed upon during the inception meeting. 

8. Consultant(s)/Firm Qualifications

The Lead consultant will have the following qualifications: 

• At least 10 years of relevant experience (international development MEL/research) of lead consultant. The consulting team should comprise experts in gender and women’s empowerment, youth with disability and refugee inclusion etc.
• Demonstrated experience in designing and implementing evaluation studies, including proven experience in a mixed method approach, sampling, tools development, enumerators training, etc.
• Excellent knowledge in the use of digital data collection and analysis tools.
• Ability to recruit and manage enumerators for qualitative and quantitative components.
• Experience integrating safeguarding and inclusion into MEL approaches, including engagement of young women, PWDs and RDPs
• Ability to produce high quality work under tight deadlines.
• Strong analytical skills for both qualitative and quantitative data
• Familiarity with Nigeria’s women economic empowerment
• Familiarity with Mastercard Foundation’s shared measures is desirable

9. Application Packages and Procedures 

Qualified and interested applicants are asked to submit the following:

1. A technical proposal of not more than six pages clearly describing the proposed methodology to be used and a detailed outline of the relevant qualifications and experience of members of the research team.
2. A detailed financial proposal inclusive of a detailed breakdown of costs for the study. A work plan stating deliverables, level of effort of members of the research team, expected timeframe, unit and total cost, summary of proposed cost, and proposed payment schedule.  
3. Evidence of previous work: The consultant must provide evidence of relevant previous assignments, including baseline studies, evaluations, or research of similar scope and complexity. This should include brief descriptions of past work, roles and responsibilities, methodologies applied, client references, and, where available, samples of completed reports or links to published outputs.

Please apply on the platform. 

For more information and clarifications, please contact us via email at [email protected]

The deadline for the submission of applications is 23 January 2026 at the close of business 5:00pm (GMT).