Under the general direction of the Manager, supports the power system forecast development for California ISO and EIM system loads, renewable resource forecasting, distributed resources, uncertainty requirements, and ancillary services. Analyzes Numerical Weather Prediction Models and translates forecasted information to daily ISO/EIM needs for renewable and load forecasting. Provides input to enhance and support required data and neural network modeling to continuously improve forecasting at the ISO. Tracks, evaluates, and registers new variable energy resources to ensure the onboarding process for new variable energy resources is robust and efficient. Acts as project coordinator in the design, analysis, and testing of forecast accuracy.
What You Will Be Doing:
- Uses statistical methods to collect and organize load, weather, and renewable resource data. Gathers and interprets various meteorological data to formulate short and medium-range forecasts critical to the Bulk Electric System for the ISO and EIM entities. Validates and improves the accuracy of daily load (including weather inputs affecting load), wind, solar, distributed resources, and uncertainty requirement forecasts. Provides meteorological insight and forecasting support to CAISO and WEIM BAA Operators and other internal groups as necessary. Identifies and alerts Operations division to meteorological events capable of jeopardizing system reliability.
- Monitors, analyzes, and reports on forecasting results, including performance, quality, efficiency, and effectiveness. Monitors and detects emerging forecasting trends. Participates in identifying root causes of forecast design gaps leading to inefficiency. Provides technical, analytical, and reporting services to internal business units and external entities. Works to improve streamlining and automating the forecasting monitoring and reporting processes.
- Improves methods and procedures for collecting and processing demand, energy, weather, and economic data by analyzing historical and forecasted electric demand, generation, and energy trends and related data. Creates, maintains, and analyzes databases housing historic real-time, hourly, and daily loads, weather, renewable resources, renewable generator outages, economic, demographic, and other pertinent data. Evaluates potential inefficiencies in current procedures and recommends improvements.
- Partners with senior staff to develop hypotheses to improve forecasting accuracy for load, renewables, and uncertainty products. Uses software to retrain the neural network model and/or other modeling methods to prove or disprove forecast hypotheses and analyzes the results. In conjunction with peers, researches, develops, and creates plans to enhance short term load forecast, wind forecast, solar forecast, uncertainty requirements, and other energy models through the use of statistical, algorithmic, mining and visualization techniques. Develops and works with senior staff to implement new forecasting tools and interfaces using computer programming.
- Provides technical analysis and coordination on all aspects of onboarding and validating variable energy resources to ensure timely, accurate and consistent detailed short-term wind and solar forecasts are used in the real-time and day-ahead markets. Provides technical analysis and coordination on all aspects of uncertainty requirements to ensure timely, accurate, and consistent requirements are available to operations and used in the real-time and day-ahead markets.
- Assists with policy issues and related matters. May propose solutions to issues and problems within assigned areas of responsibility. Acts as a project coordinator in the design, definition, testing, documentation, implementation and support of forecast applications. Coordinates project efforts of ISO business units, vendors, market participants, and others as appropriate.
Level of Education and Discipline:
- A Bachelor's degree (BA, BS) or equivalent education, training or experience in Atmospheric Science/Meteorology, Statistics, Math, Computer Science, Economics, Data Science, Engineering or closely related field. An advanced degree (MS or PhD) is preferred.
Amount of Experience:
- Equivalent years of education and training, plus two (2) or more years related experience.
Type of Experience:
- Experience in short or long term (load, wind, and/or solar generation) forecasting utilizing neural networks, and model optimization techniques (electric industry experience with utilities or ISO preferred).
- Experience with meteorological forecasting for the Western United States, numerical weather prediction models, analyzing uncertainty within weather conditions, and communicating uncertainty.
- Experience using neural network, analytical, and/or optimization techniques from one of the following disciplines: statistics, probabilities, economics, or decision analysis.
- Experience with data management, data warehousing, data querying, and use of databases (SQL, MS-Access, MS-Excel, etc.) required.
- Experience with the application of statistics, advanced mathematics, simulation, software development, and data modeling to integrate and clean data, recognize patterns, address uncertainty, pose questions, and make discoveries.
- Experience with statistics, economic and demographic impacts on loads, energy management, and generator operation/characteristics desired.
- Knowledge of Balancing Authority operational requirements (i.e., operating reserve requirements) desired.
- Knowledge of EMS and SCADA data acquisition functions and PI Historian archiving processes desired.
- Experience with software or hardware systems a plus.
One or a combination of the following is required:
- Forecasting Weather, Load and/or Renewable Resources
- Power systems
- PI Historian real-time systems
- Market operations
- Web services
- Experience in one or more of the following programming languages is desired: SQL/Oracle, R-Studio, Python, VBA, or similar.
Additional Skills and Abilities:
- Strong verbal and written communication and documentation skills required, with a demonstrated attention to detail. Ability to use deductive reasoning and analytical thinking with sound judgment and decision-making skills. Strong interpersonal and conflict resolution skills are also essential. Must be self-starting and willing and able to work independently in a dynamic corporate organization under pressure of tight deadlines and aggressive expectations. Problem solving skills with the ability to influence others without direct authority. Must be able to work effectively in a team environment as facilitator and team member. Must be proficient with Microsoft Office Suite. Strong skills in the application of mathematics, statistics, and probabilities, with the ability to factor human behaviors into forecasts
The pay range for the Power Systems Forecaster Specialist is $37.14- $61.90 / hour.
All your information will be kept confidential according to EEO guidelines.
